Date:2020-06-08; Hits:
After the base paper rose 50 yuan collectively on May 25, it rose another 50 yuan on June 2, and on June 8 (today), it rose another 50-100 yuan, 150-200 yuan in less than half a month. At the same time, the letter of base paper price increase in Zhejiang, Guangdong, Hunan and other provinces came in a stream, and some paper factories even declared that: cash delivery, do not pay as required to stop delivery.
Jilin Changbaishan Qixiang Paper Co., Ltd. raised the price of corrugated paper by 50 yuan / ton on June 7;
Dongguan Jiulong Paper Co., Ltd. today, the price of corrugated paper is 50-70g, while the price of other corrugated paper is up 50 yuan / ton;
In Dongguan Jianhang paper industry, the price of corrugated paper was increased by 50 yuan / ton;
Liansheng paper (Longhai) Co., Ltd. raised the price of corrugated paper by 50 yuan / ton;
Tianjin Jiulong Paper Co., Ltd. raised the price of corrugated paper by 50 yuan / ton;
Guangdong Liwen Paper Co., Ltd. raised the price of corrugated paper by 80 yuan / ton;
Quanzhou Jiulong Paper Co., Ltd. raised the price of corrugated paper by 50 yuan / ton;
The price of high-strength corrugated paper in Sanxing paper industry of Longhai City was increased by 50 yuan / ton;
Taicang Jiulong, the quotation of corrugated paper is increased by 50 yuan / ton;
Shandong Tiandi edge paper industry raised 50 yuan / ton of high-strength corrugated paper;
In Shandong Sun Honghe paper industry, the price of corrugated paper increased by 50 yuan / ton;
Chongqing Jiulong Paper Co., Ltd. raised the price of corrugated paper by 50 yuan / ton;
Dongguan Shanglong Paper Co., Ltd. raised the price of high-strength corrugated paper by 50 yuan / ton;
Dongguan Taichang Paper Co., Ltd. raised 100 yuan / ton for ordinary corrugated paper;
Shandong Dezhou TAIDING, the price of high-strength corrugated paper rose on June 6;
The price of high-strength corrugated paper in Baoshi paper industry in Baixiang County, Hebei Province was increased by 50 yuan / ton;
The price of corrugated paper in Huaxing paper industry in Baixiang County, Hebei Province increased by 50 yuan / ton
……
Dongguan gold field paper industry: on June 1, it was announced that Jinwa brand environmental protection Kraft linerboard increased by 50 yuan / ton; on June 5, the paper factory also said that it increased by 50 yuan / ton from June 8. Two rounds of price increase will make the accumulative increase of Dongguan gold field paper industry reach 100 yuan / ton.
Similarly, Dongguan Jianhui Paper Co., Ltd., whose sales price of coated gray base white board paper rose 100 yuan / ton on May 28. On June 8, the paper mill will rise another 100 yuan / ton. In just 10 days, the price will be increased twice, and the cumulative increase will be up to 200 yuan / ton.
Jiangmen Star Paper Co., Ltd.: as the price of waste paper and other raw materials rises, from June 6, 2020, all series of bobbin paper will be increased by 100 yuan / ton on the basis of the original price. At the same time, it is decided to carry out boiler transformation from June 13-23, 2020, that is, the whole plant will be shut down for 10 days.
Statement of some paper mills: cash delivery
Yiwu Yinan Paper Industry Co., Ltd.: from June 5, 2020, all 110g, 120g, 125g and 140g class a high-strength corrugated paper will be increased by 50 yuan / ton.
Hangzhou Jintai Paper Co., Ltd.: from June 5, 2020, the price of finished paper will be increased by 50 yuan / ton based on the original supply price. 70 yuan / ton for regular opening and 100 yuan / ton for special opening. The original unfinished orders (including those paid but not delivered) are also within the price adjustment range. Cash delivery, do not pay as required to stop delivery.
Zhejiang Gaoyang Paper Industry Co., Ltd.: from June 5, 2020, the price of single-sided coated white board paper will be increased by 50 yuan / ton on the basis of the original supply price, and the original unfinished orders (including those paid but not delivered) will also be within the price adjustment range. Cash delivery, do not pay as required to stop delivery.
Liuyang Tianhe Paper Co., Ltd.: from June 5, 2020, the price of finished paper will be increased by 50 yuan / ton on the basis of the original supply price, and the price of the original orders that have been received but not completed will also be increased.
Funing Huayun Paper Co., Ltd.: from June 5, 2020, the price of all g-heavy corrugated paper will be increased by 50 yuan / ton on the original basis, and the original order will also be within the scope of this price adjustment.
Shantou Yaode Paper Industry Co., Ltd.: since June 4, 2020, the price of coated white board paper produced by the company's No.1 and No.2 machines has been increased by 50 yuan / ton on the basis of the original price, and the original unfinished orders are also within the scope of this price adjustment.
Dandong Hongyang Paper Co., Ltd.: from June 4, 2020, the price of high-strength corrugated base paper will be increased by 50 yuan / ton on the basis of the original price. Customers whose orders have not been fulfilled and prepayment customers are increased at the same time.
let's go back to the previous rounds of & ldquo; price rise & rdquo:
1. On May 20 and 25, Liwen and Jiulong led the first wave of price increase
Due to the continuous downturn of paper price, both paper mills and secondary plants adopt the strategy of high turnover and low inventory. When the secondary plant judges that the paper price will not fall again and can replenish the stock for 618 in advance, a large number of base paper flows from the paper mill to the secondary plant, resulting in short-term shortage of stock, and the paper mill is rising slightly.
2. Analysis of the impact of the first round of price rise
After a large amount of replenishment, the base paper was transferred from the paper mill to the secondary plant, and the cash flow of the secondary plant to the paper mill was relatively short. At this time, if there is no big terminal market, the secondary plant will not, and will not have so much cash to replenish the stock again. Because the increase of cardboard price of 50 yuan / ton has little impact on the cardboard price, the pressure will be basically borne by the secondary plant.
3. The second round of base paper price increase and the first round of cardboard price increase
On June 2, a new round of price increase was carried out in the paper mill. After two rounds of price increase, the impact of base paper on the cost of paperboard has exceeded the capacity of the second-class factory (about 0.04-0.06 yuan / m2), which has forced the second-class factory to increase the price on a large scale. Therefore, after June 3, a large area of second-class factories rose in East China, South China, southwest and other regions.
4. Resumption of the first round of price rise
From base paper to cardboard, and even some cartons, the packaging industry experienced the first round of price increases.
The direct reason for the price increase of secondary board factory is the cost pressure brought by the price increase of base paper, but the basis for the success of the price increase is the stability of downstream orders. For the second level factory, the price increase will not only transfer the cost of raw material price increase, but also take advantage of the price increase to obtain a large number of downstream orders. For the third level factory, the vicious competition caused by long-term low price, the upstream price increase is conducive to improving its price discourse right to carton customers.
But the so-called "right to speak" is actually a very empty thing. If the price rise of upstream paper mills and secondary plants stops here, the third level plants will not be able to increase the price of terminal customers on a large scale. Finally, the pressure of the first two rounds of paper price increase will settle on the third-class factory group with the weakest bargaining power. To borrow the words of a third-class factory owner, & ldquo; if the second-class factory goes up a wave of advice, we can only make profits to customers. ”
It is this psychology that provides the "basis of public opinion" for the price rise of base paper;.
5. Expectations for a new round of price rise
On Monday, June 8, the base paper of Jiulong Dongguan, Tianjin, Chongqing, Taicang, Liaoning and other bases rose again, which led to a new round of nationwide price increase. But Xiaobian thinks that this round of price increase is likely to be a test and foreshadowing for a new round of price increase.
Is this wave of price increase serious, not serious! The influence of 50 yuan / ton base paper cost on the downstream cardboard price is 2-3 cents, but the possible impact of this round of price rise can not be ignored. It is very likely to be the exploration and foreshadowing of a new round of cardboard price rise. As long as the paper price rises 50 yuan again, the cardboard price will rise accordingly.
It seems that we can infer from the above reply that if the paper mill and the cardboard mill keep repeating this cycle, can we continuously push up the price of paper?
not!
First of all, the terminal demand order did not break out, but it was stable and could not support the continuous rise of paper price. In addition, we need to consider the import of base paper. The production capacity of foreign paper mills is mainly to meet their own packaging needs. The number of unplanned base paper outflow is small, and the quality gap is even greater. Due to the epidemic, the reduction of overseas terminal demand led to the outflow of a large number of unplanned base paper. Since February, overseas base paper has been flowing into China in succession. Based on the needs of market protection, the upper limit of domestic base paper price has also been set.